Key points include:
- Economic growth forecast to be 2.25% in 2025-26, up from 2.00% in 2024-25.
- Business investment to remain weak, but expectations of a large surge in dwelling investment from 2025-26.
- Employment growth to drop dramatically through to 2025/26.
- Growth in government spending driven demand to outstrip private sector demand growth until 2026-27.
- Personal income tax cuts of $17 billion, with reductions in the lowest tax rate to 14% by July 2027.
- 20% or $16 billion reduction (forgiveness) in student debt.
- $7.9 billion to make 90% of GP visits bulk billed by 2030.
- $1.8 billion extension of energy bill relief to the end of this year.
- $785 million to cap pharmaceutical benefit scheme scripts.
- Two-year ban on foreign buyers purchasing existing dwellings in addition to projections of a material drop in net overseas migration (though from a high base).
The winners include:
- Taxpayers – every worker will be better off by $5 a week next year, which will rise to a $10 per week saving by mid-2027, costing $17 billion.
- Low-income households – the Medicare Levy low-income thresholds will be increased benefiting more than one million households.
- Household budget – electricity bills will be $150 cheaper, with an extension of the $75 quarterly rebate until the end of this year, costing $1.8 billion.
- Medicines – the maximum price of prescription medicines will be reduced to $25 a script.
- Patients – GPs will receive high incentives to bulk bill patients, costing $8.4 billion.
- Public hospitals – will receive an extra $1.8 billion in funding.
- Students – outstanding university loan balances to be slashed by 20% this year, reducing the debt for three million by $16 billion; free TAFE expanded to 100,000 places annually.
- Public schools – funding lifted by an extra $7.6 billion over the next 10 years.
- Home buyers – the “Help to Buy” scheme for first home buyers to be expanded.
- Drinkers – indexation of draught beer excise paused for two years.
- Transport – road and rail projects to get $1.7 billion over 10 years.
- Internet users – the NBN will receive $3 billion equity injection to complete fibre upgrades.
The losers include:
- Multinationals – the ATO gets almost $1 billion over 5 years to extend its crackdown on domestic and multinational tax avoidance.
- Consultants – large consultants will continue to have their access to government work constrained, cutting $720 million.
- Smokers – $156 million to disrupt the illicit tobacco trade (largely caused by significant increases to tobacco excise).
- NDIS fraudsters – funding to beef up investigatory powers given ballooning costs of fraud.
Relevant charts shown below.
